Princé Karine, Lorrillière Romain, Barbet-Massin Morgane, Léger François, Jiguet Frédéric
Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d'Oiseaux, CP 51, Paris, France; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d'Oiseaux, CP 51, Paris, France.
PLoS One. 2015 Feb 20;10(2):e0117850. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0117850. eCollection 2015.
Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable agricultural policies for the future.
气候和土地利用变化是当前生物多样性趋势的关键驱动因素，但这些驱动因素之间的相互作用却很少被建模，尽管它们可能会放大或减轻气候变化的负面影响。在此，我们试图预测不同农业变化情景对农田中常见繁殖鸟类的影响，这些农田位于这些物种未来潜在气候适宜区域内。我们利用排放情景特别报告（SRES），基于物种分布模型整合物种气候适宜性的可能变化，以及基于IMAGE模型整合未来气候适宜区域内农田面积的变化。我们还根据专家意见制定了六种农田覆盖情景，涵盖了到2050年畜牧业和种植模式潜在变化的广泛范围。我们运行广义线性混合模型来校准农田覆盖和气候变化对386个小型农业区域内鸟类特定丰度的影响。我们利用模型输出，根据区域农田覆盖、农田面积和物种气候适宜性的预测变化，预测鸟类种群的潜在变化。然后，我们根据鸟类的栖息地需求检查了物种敏感性。一种基于农业系统粗放化（即低强度农业）的情景显示，在减少当前繁殖鸟类数量下降方面具有最大潜力。为了满足更多物种的生态需求，考虑区域差异和景观结构的农业政策似乎比在国家层面统一实施的全球政策更有效。有趣的是，我们还发现有证据表明农田覆盖变化可以减轻气候变化的负面影响。在此，我们证实通过景观的适应性管理有潜力应对气候变化的负面影响。我们认为此类研究将有助于为未来的可持续农业政策提供信息。
