Glemnitz Michael, Zander Peter, Stachow Ulrich
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany,
Environ Monit Assess. 2015 Jun;187(6):336. doi: 10.1007/s10661-015-4448-z. Epub 2015 May 9.
The environmental impacts of land use vary regionally. Differences in geomorphology, climate, landscape structure, and biotope inventories are regarded as the main causes of this variation. We present a methodological approach for identifying regional responses in land use type to large-scale changes and the implications for the provision of habitat for farmland birds. The methodological innovations of this approach are (i) the coupling of impact assessments with economic models, (ii) the linking of cropping techniques at the plot scale with the regional distribution of land use, and (iii) the integration of statistical or monitoring data on recent states. This approach allows for the regional differentiation of farmers' responses to changing external conditions and for matching the ecological impacts of land use changes with regional environmental sensitivities. An exemplary scenario analysis was applied for a case study of an area in Germany, assessing the impacts of increased irrigation and the promotion of energy cropping on farmland birds, evaluated as a core indicator for farmland biodiversity. The potential effects on farmland birds were analyzed based on the intrinsic habitat values of the crops and cropping techniques. The results revealed that the strongest decrease in habitat availability for farmland birds occurred in regions with medium-to-low agricultural yields. As a result of the limited cropping alternatives, the increase in maize production was highest in marginal regions for both examined scenarios. Maize production replaced many crops with good-to-medium habitat suitability for birds. The declines in habitat quality were strongest in regions that are not in focus for conservation efforts for farmland birds.
土地利用的环境影响因地区而异。地貌、气候、景观结构和生物群落清单的差异被视为这种变化的主要原因。我们提出了一种方法，用于确定土地利用类型对大规模变化的区域响应以及对农田鸟类栖息地供应的影响。该方法的创新之处在于：（i）将影响评估与经济模型相结合；（ii）将地块尺度的种植技术与土地利用的区域分布联系起来；（iii）整合有关当前状态的统计或监测数据。这种方法能够区分不同地区农民对不断变化的外部条件的反应，并使土地利用变化的生态影响与区域环境敏感性相匹配。我们以德国一个地区为例进行了情景分析，评估了增加灌溉和推广能源作物种植对农田鸟类的影响，农田鸟类被视为农田生物多样性的核心指标。基于作物和种植技术的内在栖息地价值分析了对农田鸟类的潜在影响。结果表明，农田鸟类栖息地可用性下降最严重的地区是农业产量中低的地区。由于种植选择有限，在所研究的两种情景中，边际地区的玉米产量增幅最大。玉米生产取代了许多对鸟类栖息地适宜性良好至中等的作物。在那些并非农田鸟类保护重点的地区，栖息地质量下降最为明显。
