Cox D R, Davison A C
Nuffield College, Oxford, U.K.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1989 Sep 5;325(1226):185-7. doi: 10.1098/rstb.1989.0084.
Prediction limits are calculated for the number of events likely to occur in a specified time period in an exponentially growing epidemic. The basis for the prediction is the total number of events observed in the past.