Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
J R Soc Interface. 2013 Feb 13;10(81):20120921. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0921. Print 2013 Apr 6.
Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross-Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross-Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross-Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.
蚊虫传播病原体的数学模型起源于 20 世纪初，旨在深入了解如何最有效地防治疟疾。1970 年确立了罗斯-麦克唐纳理论的基础。从那时起，人们越来越关注减轻蚊虫传播病原体对公共卫生的负担，并扩大模型的使用以指导其控制。为了评估理论如何改变以应对不断演变的公共卫生挑战，我们编译了一份从 1970 年到 2010 年的 325 篇出版物的参考书目，这些出版物至少包含一个蚊虫传播病原体的数学模型，然后使用 79 个部分的问卷根据其生物学假设对 388 个相关模型中的每一个进行分类。作为解释我们调查多维结果的综合措施，我们为每个模型分配了一个数值，该数值衡量其与罗斯-麦克唐纳模型的 15 个核心假设的相似程度。尽管分析表明，在建模传播过程中，对地理、生态和流行病学的复杂性的认识不断提高，但在过去 40 年中的大多数模型都非常类似于罗斯-麦克唐纳模型。现代理论将受益于围绕异质蚊虫叮咬、蚊虫与宿主相遇混合不良、空间异质性和传播过程中的时间变化等概念的扩展。
