Devaraju N, Bala Govindasamy, Modak Angshuman
Divecha Center for Climate Change & Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012, India
Divecha Center for Climate Change & Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012, India.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Mar 17;112(11):3257-62. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1423439112. Epub 2015 Mar 2.
In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.
在本文中，我们使用理想化气候模型模拟，研究了大规模森林砍伐对季风区域的生物地球物理效应。我们发现，北半球中高纬度地区大规模森林砍伐产生的远程强迫使热带辐合带向南移动。这导致北半球季风区域（东亚、北美、北非和南亚）降水量显著减少，而南半球季风区域（南非、南美和澳大利亚）降水量适度增加。季风降水变化的幅度取决于森林砍伐的位置，远程效应的影响大于局部效应。南亚季风区域受影响最大，印度降水量下降了18%。我们的结果表明，作为气候变化缓解策略的任何造林/再造林综合评估，都应在仔细评估对温度的巨大局部影响的同时，认真评估对季风降水的远程影响。
