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评估河流系统悬浮泥沙负荷的各种人工智能方法性能比较:以美国为例

A comparison of various artificial intelligence approaches performance for estimating suspended sediment load of river systems: a case study in United States.

作者信息

Olyaie Ehsan, Banejad Hossein, Chau Kwok-Wing, Melesse Assefa M

机构信息

Young Researchers and Elite Club, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran.

出版信息

Environ Monit Assess. 2015 Apr;187(4):189. doi: 10.1007/s10661-015-4381-1. Epub 2015 Mar 19.

DOI:10.1007/s10661-015-4381-1
PMID:25787167
Abstract

Accurate and reliable suspended sediment load (SSL) prediction models are necessary for planning and management of water resource structures. More recently, soft computing techniques have been used in hydrological and environmental modeling. The present paper compared the accuracy of three different soft computing methods, namely, artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), coupled wavelet and neural network (WANN), and conventional sediment rating curve (SRC) approaches for estimating the daily SSL in two gauging stations in the USA. The performances of these models were measured by the coefficient of correlation (R), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (CE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to choose the best fit model. Obtained results demonstrated that applied soft computing models were in good agreement with the observed SSL values, while they depicted better results than the conventional SRC method. The comparison of estimation accuracies of various models illustrated that the WANN was the most accurate model in SSL estimation in comparison to other models. For example, in Flathead River station, the determination coefficient was 0.91 for the best WANN model, while it was 0.65, 0.75, and 0.481 for the best ANN, ANFIS, and SRC models, and also in the Santa Clara River, amounts of this statistical criteria was 0.92 for the best WANN model, while it was 0.76, 0.78, and 0.39 for the best ANN, ANFIS, and SRC models, respectively. Also, the values of cumulative suspended sediment load computed by the best WANN model were closer to the observed data than the other models. In general, results indicated that the WANN model could satisfactorily mimic phenomenon, acceptably estimate cumulative SSL, and reasonably predict peak SSL values.

摘要

准确可靠的悬沙负荷(SSL)预测模型对于水资源结构的规划和管理至关重要。近年来,软计算技术已被应用于水文和环境建模。本文比较了三种不同软计算方法的准确性,即人工神经网络(ANNs)、自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)、小波与神经网络耦合(WANN),以及传统的泥沙评级曲线(SRC)方法,用于估算美国两个测量站的日悬沙负荷。通过相关系数(R)、纳什-萨特克利夫效率系数(CE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)来衡量这些模型的性能,以选择最佳拟合模型。所得结果表明,应用的软计算模型与观测到的悬沙负荷值吻合良好,同时其表现优于传统的SRC方法。各种模型估计精度的比较表明,与其他模型相比,WANN是悬沙负荷估计中最准确的模型。例如,在弗拉特黑德河站,最佳WANN模型的决定系数为0.91,而最佳ANN、ANFIS和SRC模型的决定系数分别为0.65、0.75和0.481;在圣克拉拉河,最佳WANN模型的这一统计标准值为0.92,而最佳ANN、ANFIS和SRC模型的该值分别为0.76、0.78和0.39。此外,最佳WANN模型计算的累积悬沙负荷值比其他模型更接近观测数据。总体而言,结果表明WANN模型能够令人满意地模拟该现象,可接受地估计累积悬沙负荷,并合理地预测悬沙负荷峰值。

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