Sterk Ankie, Schets Franciska M, de Roda Husman Ana Maria, de Nijs Ton, Schijven Jack F
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Risk Anal. 2015 Sep;35(9):1717-29. doi: 10.1111/risa.12365. Epub 2015 Mar 24.
Currently, the number of reported cases of recreational- water-related Vibrio illness in the Netherlands is low. However, a notable higher incidence of Vibrio infections has been observed in warm summers. In the future, such warm summers are expected to occur more often, resulting in enhanced water temperatures favoring Vibrio growth. Quantitative information on the increase in concentration of Vibrio spp. in recreational water under climate change scenarios is lacking. In this study, data on occurrence of Vibrio spp. at six different bathing sites in the Netherlands (2009-2012) were used to derive an empirical formula to predict the Vibrio concentration as a function of temperature, salinity, and pH. This formula was used to predict the effects of increased temperatures in climate change scenarios on Vibrio concentrations. For Vibrio parahaemolyticus, changes in illness risks associated with the changed concentrations were calculated as well. For an average temperature increase of 3.7 °C, these illness risks were calculated to be two to three times higher than in the current situation. Current illness risks were, varying per location, on average between 10(-4) and 10(-2) per person for an entire summer. In situations where water temperatures reached maximum values, illness risks are estimated to be up to 10(-2) and 10(-1) . If such extreme situations occur more often during future summers, increased numbers of ill bathers or bathing-water-related illness outbreaks may be expected.
目前，荷兰报告的与娱乐用水相关的弧菌病病例数量较少。然而，在温暖的夏季，已观察到弧菌感染的发病率显著更高。未来，预计此类温暖的夏季会更频繁出现，导致水温升高有利于弧菌生长。目前缺乏关于气候变化情景下娱乐用水中弧菌属浓度增加的定量信息。在本研究中，利用荷兰六个不同浴场（2009 - 2012年）弧菌属出现的数据推导出一个经验公式，以预测弧菌浓度作为温度、盐度和pH值的函数。该公式用于预测气候变化情景下温度升高对弧菌浓度的影响。对于副溶血性弧菌，还计算了与浓度变化相关的疾病风险变化。平均温度升高3.7°C时，这些疾病风险经计算比当前情况高出两到三倍。当前的疾病风险因地点而异，整个夏季每人平均在10⁻⁴到10⁻²之间。在水温达到最高值的情况下，疾病风险估计高达10⁻²和10⁻¹。如果未来夏季此类极端情况更频繁出现，预计沐浴者患病数量增加或与沐浴水相关的疾病暴发可能会增多。
