Lessler J, Edmunds W J, Halloran M E, Hollingsworth T D, Lloyd A L
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21224, USA.
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
Epidemics. 2015 Mar;10:78-82. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.12.002. Epub 2014 Dec 16.
Infectious disease models are both concise statements of hypotheses and powerful techniques for creating tools from hypotheses and theories. As such, they have tremendous potential for guiding data collection in experimental and observational studies, leading to more efficient testing of hypotheses and more robust study designs. In numerous instances, infectious disease models have played a key role in informing data collection, including the Garki project studying malaria, the response to the 2009 pandemic of H1N1 influenza in the United Kingdom and studies of T-cell immunodynamics in mammals. However, such synergies remain the exception rather than the rule; and a close marriage of dynamic modeling and empirical data collection is far from the norm in infectious disease research. Overcoming the challenges to using models to inform data collection has the potential to accelerate innovation and to improve practice in how we deal with infectious disease threats.
传染病模型既是假设的简洁表述,也是从假设和理论创建工具的强大技术。因此,它们在指导实验性和观察性研究中的数据收集方面具有巨大潜力,从而能更高效地检验假设并设计出更稳健的研究方案。在许多情况下,传染病模型在为数据收集提供信息方面发挥了关键作用,包括研究疟疾的加尔基项目、英国对2009年H1N1流感大流行的应对以及对哺乳动物T细胞免疫动力学的研究。然而,这种协同作用仍然是例外而非惯例;动态建模与实证数据收集的紧密结合在传染病研究中远非常态。克服利用模型为数据收集提供信息所面临的挑战,有可能加速创新并改进我们应对传染病威胁的实践。