Amen Bank, Kef Agency, Tunis, Tunisia,
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2015 Aug;22(16):12050-61. doi: 10.1007/s11356-015-4483-x. Epub 2015 Apr 15.
This paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds methodological approach to investigate the relationship between economic growth, combustible renewables and waste consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and international tourism for the case of Tunisia spanning the period 1990-2010. The results from the Fisher statistic of both the Wald test and the Johansen test confirm the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables under investigation. The stability of estimated parameters has been tested, while Granger causality tests recommend a short-run unidirectional causality running from economic growth and combustible renewables and waste consumption to CO2 emissions, a bidirectional causality between economic growth and combustible renewables and waste consumption and unidirectional causality running from economic growth and combustible renewables and waste consumption to international tourism. In the long-run, the error correction terms confirm the presence of bidirectional causality relationships between economic growth, CO2 emissions, combustible renewables and waste consumption, and international tourism. Our long-run estimates show that combustible renewables and waste consumption increases international tourism, and both renewables and waste consumption and international tourism increase CO2 emissions and output. We recommend that (i) Tunisia should use more combustible renewables and waste energy as this eliminates wastes from touristic zones and increases the number of tourist arrivals, leading to economic growth, and (ii) a fraction of this economic growth generated by the increase in combustible renewables and waste consumption should be invested in clean renewable energy production (i.e., solar, wind, geothermal) and energy efficiency projects.
本文采用自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 边界方法，考察了 1990-2010 年突尼斯经济增长、可燃烧的可再生能源和废物消耗、二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放和国际旅游业之间的关系。Fisher 统计量的 Wald 检验和 Johansen 检验结果均证实了所研究变量之间存在长期关系。估计参数的稳定性已经过测试，而格兰杰因果关系检验表明，从经济增长和可燃烧的可再生能源和废物消耗到 CO2 排放存在短期单向因果关系，经济增长和可燃烧的可再生能源和废物消耗之间存在双向因果关系，经济增长和可燃烧的可再生能源和废物消耗到国际旅游业存在单向因果关系。在长期内，误差修正项证实了经济增长、CO2 排放、可燃烧的可再生能源和废物消耗以及国际旅游业之间存在双向因果关系。我们的长期估计表明，可燃烧的可再生能源和废物消耗增加了国际旅游业，而可再生能源和废物消耗以及国际旅游业都增加了 CO2 排放和产出。我们建议：(i) 突尼斯应更多地利用可燃烧的可再生能源和废物能源，因为这可以消除旅游区的废物，并增加游客的到来，从而促进经济增长；(ii) 可燃烧的可再生能源和废物消耗增加所产生的一部分经济增长应投资于清洁可再生能源生产（即太阳能、风能、地热能）和能源效率项目。
