Landcare Research, PO Box 69040, Lincoln, 7640, New Zealand.
Landcare Research, Hamilton, 3240, New Zealand.
Glob Chang Biol. 2015 Aug;21(8):2844-60. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12949. Epub 2015 Jun 8.
Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being.
未来人类的福祉取决于陆地初级生产部门能否持续提供粮食、纤维和木材。提供这些服务的能力取决于基于土壤的生态系统服务（例如碳、养分和水循环以及存储），但我们对这些服务对气候变化的可能反应缺乏深入了解。我们回顾了温带生态系统在这一主题上的现有知识，重点介绍了可能支撑四个初级生产系统（种植业、集约畜牧业、粗放畜牧业和人工林）之间气候变化反应差异的机制。然后，我们以新西兰为例，说明如何应用这些发现来评估特定地区在气候变化下的服务提供情况。不同系统之间与碳和养分相关的服务的气候变化响应差异主要取决于它们是依赖外部添加的养分还是内部循环的养分，植物群落影响响应的程度，以及对侵蚀的脆弱性差异。土壤在气候变化下调节水的能力主要取决于降雨量的变化，但不同的初级生产系统对土壤抗水性的脆弱性和蒸散率的差异也会影响这一能力。这些调节服务的变化导致了不同系统中生物量生产潜力的不同增加，其中集约化管理的系统最有可能从气候变化中受益。定量预测气候变化对土壤生态系统服务的净影响仍然是一个挑战，部分原因是知识差距，但也因为气候变化的不同方面之间存在复杂的相互作用。尽管存在这一挑战，但在土壤在支持人类福祉方面发挥着根本作用的情况下，获得使此类预测尽可能稳健所需的信息至关重要。
