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通过建模确定气候变化给新西兰农业带来的直接风险。

Modelling to identify direct risks for New Zealand agriculture due to climate change.

作者信息

Lilburne Linda, Ausseil Anne-Gaelle, Sood Abha, Guo Jing, Teixeira Edmar, Vetharaniam Indrakumar, van der Weerden Tony, Smith Hugh, Neverman Andrew, Cichota Rogerio, Phillips Craig, Johnson Patricia, Thomas Steve, Dynes Robyn

机构信息

Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand.

Ministry for the Environment, Wellington, New Zealand.

出版信息

J R Soc N Z. 2024 Sep 24;55(6):1683-1700. doi: 10.1080/03036758.2024.2393295. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.1080/03036758.2024.2393295
PMID:40756872
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12315213/
Abstract

Climate change will affect New Zealand's diverse range of climatic systems in different ways. The impacts on agriculture are expected to vary with geographical location and the specific biophysical requirements of different crops and agricultural systems. To improve our understanding of these impacts, key biophysical vulnerabilities for the main farming systems in New Zealand were identified and modelled using the daily projected climate scenario data. Results show high spatial variability but a general pattern of suitability ranges for crops moving south, and animal health issues intensifying and also moving south. Sediment loads are projected to increase, particularly in soft-rock hill country areas in the North Island. The modelling approach offers opportunities for analysing the temporal significance of projected changes, such as the timing and duration of drought, the effect on timing of phenological stages, the timing of pasture growth and the effect on animal farm systems.

摘要

气候变化将以不同方式影响新西兰多样的气候系统。预计对农业的影响会因地理位置以及不同作物和农业系统的特定生物物理需求而有所不同。为了增进我们对这些影响的理解，利用每日预测气候情景数据确定并模拟了新西兰主要农业系统的关键生物物理脆弱性。结果显示出高度的空间变异性，但总体模式是作物适宜范围向南移动，动物健康问题加剧且也向南移动。预计沉积物负荷将增加，尤其是在北岛的软岩丘陵地区。这种建模方法为分析预测变化的时间意义提供了机会，例如干旱的时间和持续时间、对物候阶段时间的影响、牧场生长时间以及对畜牧养殖系统的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/1671f614519f/TNZR_A_2393295_F0008_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/5dd3ea049085/TNZR_A_2393295_F0001_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/1339bfb782d7/TNZR_A_2393295_F0002_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/2597e8c8f89e/TNZR_A_2393295_F0003_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/1806e3cac031/TNZR_A_2393295_F0004_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/3c8452ea8d06/TNZR_A_2393295_F0005_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/d3d64853075a/TNZR_A_2393295_F0006_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/6c210143ae90/TNZR_A_2393295_F0007_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/1671f614519f/TNZR_A_2393295_F0008_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/5dd3ea049085/TNZR_A_2393295_F0001_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/1339bfb782d7/TNZR_A_2393295_F0002_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/2597e8c8f89e/TNZR_A_2393295_F0003_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/1806e3cac031/TNZR_A_2393295_F0004_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/3c8452ea8d06/TNZR_A_2393295_F0005_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/d3d64853075a/TNZR_A_2393295_F0006_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/6c210143ae90/TNZR_A_2393295_F0007_OC.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adde/12315213/1671f614519f/TNZR_A_2393295_F0008_OC.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Projected Wine Grape Cultivar Shifts Due to Climate Change in New Zealand.新西兰气候变化导致酿酒葡萄品种的预计变化
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