Modelling to identify direct risks for New Zealand agriculture due to climate change.

Climate change will affect New Zealand's diverse range of climatic systems in different ways. The impacts on agriculture are expected to vary with geographical location and the specific biophysical requirements of different crops and agricultural systems. To improve our understanding of these impacts, key biophysical vulnerabilities for the main farming systems in New Zealand were identified and modelled using the daily projected climate scenario data. Results show high spatial variability but a general pattern of suitability ranges for crops moving south, and animal health issues intensifying and also moving south. Sediment loads are projected to increase, particularly in soft-rock hill country areas in the North Island. The modelling approach offers opportunities for analysing the temporal significance of projected changes, such as the timing and duration of drought, the effect on timing of phenological stages, the timing of pasture growth and the effect on animal farm systems.