Millman Alexander J, Havers Fiona, Iuliano A Danielle, Davis C Todd, Sar Borann, Sovann Ly, Chin Savuth, Corwin Andrew L, Vongphrachanh Phengta, Douangngeun Bounlom, Lindblade Kim A, Chittaganpitch Malinee, Kaewthong Viriya, Kile James C, Nguyen Hien T, Pham Dong V, Donis Ruben O, Widdowson Marc-Alain
Emerg Infect Dis. 2015 May;21(5):741-9. doi: 10.3201/eid2105.141756.
During February 2013-March 2015, a total of 602 human cases of low pathogenic avian influenza A(H7N9) were reported; no autochthonous cases were reported outside mainland China. In contrast, since highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) reemerged during 2003 in China, 784 human cases in 16 countries and poultry outbreaks in 53 countries have been reported. Whether the absence of reported A(H7N9) outside mainland China represents lack of spread or lack of detection remains unclear. We compared epidemiologic and virologic features of A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) and used human and animal influenza surveillance data collected during April 2013-May 2014 from 4 Southeast Asia countries to assess the likelihood that A(H7N9) would have gone undetected during 2014. Surveillance in Vietnam and Cambodia detected human A(H5N1) cases; no A(H7N9) cases were detected in humans or poultry in Southeast Asia. Although we cannot rule out the possible spread of A(H7N9), substantial spread causing severe disease in humans is unlikely.
在2013年2月至2015年3月期间,共报告了602例人感染低致病性甲型H7N9禽流感病例;中国大陆以外地区未报告本土病例。相比之下,自2003年高致病性甲型H5N1禽流感在中国重新出现以来,已报告在16个国家发生784例人间病例,在53个国家出现家禽疫情。中国大陆以外地区未报告甲型H7N9禽流感病例,究竟是未传播还是未被发现尚不清楚。我们比较了甲型H5N1和甲型H7N9的流行病学和病毒学特征,并利用2013年4月至2014年5月期间从4个东南亚国家收集的人类和动物流感监测数据,评估2014年期间甲型H7N9未被发现的可能性。越南和柬埔寨的监测发现了人间甲型H5N1病例;东南亚地区未在人类或家禽中检测到甲型H7N9病例。虽然我们不能排除甲型H7N9可能传播的可能性,但大规模传播导致人类严重疾病的可能性不大。