Crowder David W, Reganold John P
Department of Entomology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164;
Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Jun 16;112(24):7611-6. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1423674112. Epub 2015 Jun 1.
To promote global food and ecosystem security, several innovative farming systems have been identified that better balance multiple sustainability goals. The most rapidly growing and contentious of these systems is organic agriculture. Whether organic agriculture can continue to expand will likely be determined by whether it is economically competitive with conventional agriculture. Here, we examined the financial performance of organic and conventional agriculture by conducting a meta-analysis of a global dataset spanning 55 crops grown on five continents. When organic premiums were not applied, benefit/cost ratios (-8 to -7%) and net present values (-27 to -23%) of organic agriculture were significantly lower than conventional agriculture. However, when actual premiums were applied, organic agriculture was significantly more profitable (22-35%) and had higher benefit/cost ratios (20-24%) than conventional agriculture. Although premiums were 29-32%, breakeven premiums necessary for organic profits to match conventional profits were only 5-7%, even with organic yields being 10-18% lower. Total costs were not significantly different, but labor costs were significantly higher (7-13%) with organic farming practices. Studies in our meta-analysis accounted for neither environmental costs (negative externalities) nor ecosystem services from good farming practices, which likely favor organic agriculture. With only 1% of the global agricultural land in organic production, our findings suggest that organic agriculture can continue to expand even if premiums decline. Furthermore, with their multiple sustainability benefits, organic farming systems can contribute a larger share in feeding the world.
为促进全球粮食和生态系统安全,已确定了几种能更好地平衡多重可持续发展目标的创新型农业系统。其中发展最迅速且最具争议的系统是有机农业。有机农业能否持续扩张可能取决于其在经济上是否能与传统农业竞争。在此,我们通过对一个涵盖五大洲种植的55种作物的全球数据集进行荟萃分析,研究了有机农业和传统农业的财务表现。在不应用有机溢价时,有机农业的效益/成本比(-8%至-7%)和净现值(-27%至-23%)显著低于传统农业。然而,当应用实际溢价时,有机农业的盈利能力显著更高(22% - 35%),且效益/成本比(20% - 24%)高于传统农业。尽管溢价为29% - 32%,但即使有机产量低10% - 18%,有机农业利润与传统农业利润持平所需的盈亏平衡溢价仅为5% - 7%。总成本没有显著差异,但有机耕作方式的劳动力成本显著更高(7% - 13%)。我们荟萃分析中的研究既未考虑环境成本(负面外部性),也未考虑良好耕作方式带来的生态系统服务,而这可能有利于有机农业。鉴于全球只有1%的农业用地用于有机生产,我们的研究结果表明,即使溢价下降,有机农业仍可继续扩张。此外,由于有机耕作系统具有多重可持续发展效益,它们在养活世界方面可发挥更大作用。