Ponisio Lauren C, M'Gonigle Leithen K, Mace Kevi C, Palomino Jenny, de Valpine Perry, Kremen Claire
Proc Biol Sci. 2015 Jan 22;282(1799):20141396. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2014.1396.
Agriculture today places great strains on biodiversity, soils, water and the atmosphere, and these strains will be exacerbated if current trends in population growth, meat and energy consumption, and food waste continue. Thus, farming systems that are both highly productive and minimize environmental harms are critically needed. How organic agriculture may contribute to world food production has been subject to vigorous debate over the past decade. Here, we revisit this topic comparing organic and conventional yields with a new meta-dataset three times larger than previously used (115 studies containing more than 1000 observations) and a new hierarchical analytical framework that can better account for the heterogeneity and structure in the data. We find organic yields are only 19.2% (±3.7%) lower than conventional yields, a smaller yield gap than previous estimates. More importantly, we find entirely different effects of crop types and management practices on the yield gap compared with previous studies. For example, we found no significant differences in yields for leguminous versus non-leguminous crops, perennials versus annuals or developed versus developing countries. Instead, we found the novel result that two agricultural diversification practices, multi-cropping and crop rotations, substantially reduce the yield gap (to 9 ± 4% and 8 ± 5%, respectively) when the methods were applied in only organic systems. These promising results, based on robust analysis of a larger meta-dataset, suggest that appropriate investment in agroecological research to improve organic management systems could greatly reduce or eliminate the yield gap for some crops or regions.
当今农业给生物多样性、土壤、水和大气带来了巨大压力,如果人口增长、肉类和能源消费以及食物浪费的当前趋势持续下去,这些压力将会加剧。因此,迫切需要既高产又能将环境危害降至最低的耕作系统。在过去十年里,有机农业如何促进世界粮食生产一直是激烈辩论的主题。在此,我们重新审视这个话题,使用一个比以前大三倍的新元数据集(115项研究,包含1000多个观测数据)以及一个能够更好地解释数据异质性和结构的新层次分析框架,比较有机农业和传统农业的产量。我们发现有机农业的产量仅比传统农业低19.2%(±3.7%),产量差距比之前的估计要小。更重要的是,与之前的研究相比,我们发现作物类型和管理方式对产量差距有完全不同的影响。例如,我们发现豆科作物与非豆科作物、多年生作物与一年生作物或发达国家与发展中国家之间的产量没有显著差异。相反,我们有一个新发现,即两种农业多样化做法,即间作和轮作,当仅应用于有机系统时,可大幅缩小产量差距(分别缩小至9±4%和8±5%)。基于对一个更大的元数据集的稳健分析得出的这些有前景的结果表明,对农业生态研究进行适当投资以改善有机管理系统,可能会大幅缩小或消除某些作物或地区的产量差距。