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塞尔维亚北部诺维萨德市热浪和寒潮的量化与评估。

Quantification and assessment of heat and cold waves in Novi Sad, Northern Serbia.

作者信息

Basarin Biljana, Lukić Tin, Matzarakis Andreas

机构信息

Chair of Physical Geography, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg D. Obradovića 3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia.

Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, 79085, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany.

出版信息

Int J Biometeorol. 2016 Jan;60(1):139-50. doi: 10.1007/s00484-015-1012-z. Epub 2015 Jun 11.

Abstract

Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of heat and cold waves and human thermal conditions in Novi Sad, Serbia. A series of daily minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, wind, and cloud cover was used to calculate PET for the investigated period 1949-2012. The heat and cold wave analysis was carried out on days with PET values exceeding defined thresholds. Additionally, the acclimatization approach was introduced to evaluate human adaptation to interannual thermal perception. Trend analysis has revealed the presence of increasing trend in summer PET anomalies, number of days above defined threshold, number of heat waves, and average duration of heat waves per year since 1981. Moreover, winter PET anomaly as well as the number of days below certain threshold and number of cold waves per year until 1980 was decreasing, but the decrease was not statistically significant. The highest number of heat waves during summer was registered in the last two decades, but also in the first decade of the investigated period. On the other hand, the number of cold waves during six decades is quite similar and the differences are very small.

摘要

生理等效温度(PET)已被应用于塞尔维亚诺维萨德的热浪、寒潮及人体热状况分析。利用一系列每日最低和最高气温、相对湿度、风速和云量数据,计算了1949 - 2012年研究期间的PET。对PET值超过设定阈值的日子进行了热浪和寒潮分析。此外,引入了适应方法来评估人类对年际热感知的适应情况。趋势分析表明,自1981年以来,夏季PET异常、高于设定阈值的天数、热浪次数以及每年热浪的平均持续时间均呈上升趋势。此外,1980年以前,冬季PET异常以及每年低于特定阈值的天数和寒潮次数呈下降趋势,但下降不具有统计学意义。夏季热浪次数最多的情况出现在过去二十年,但在研究期的第一个十年也出现过。另一方面,六十年来寒潮次数相当接近,差异非常小。

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