Heuveline Patrick
a University of California Los Angeles.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2015;69(2):201-18. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546. Epub 2015 Jul 28.
The range of estimates of excess deaths under Pol Pot's rule of Cambodia (1975-79) is too wide to be useful: they range from under 1 to over 3 million, with the more plausible estimates still varying from 1 to 2 million. By stochastically reconstructing population dynamics in Cambodia from extant historical and demographic data, we produced interpretable distributions of the death toll and other demographic indicators. The resulting 95 per cent simulation interval (1.2-2.8 million excess deaths) demonstrates substantial uncertainty over the exact scale of mortality, yet it still excludes nearly half of the previous death-toll estimates. The 1.5-2.25 million interval contains 69 per cent of the simulations for the actual number of excess deaths, more than the wider (1-2 million) range of previous plausible estimates. The median value of 1.9 million excess deaths represents 21 per cent of the population at risk. Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546.
对柬埔寨波尔布特统治时期（1975 - 1979年）超额死亡人数的估计范围过于宽泛，难以起到实际作用：从不到100万到超过300万不等，较为合理的估计也在100万至200万之间波动。通过利用现存的历史和人口数据对柬埔寨的人口动态进行随机重建，我们得出了死亡人数及其他人口指标的可解释分布。由此得出的95%模拟区间（120万至280万超额死亡人数）表明，尽管对于确切的死亡规模仍存在很大不确定性，但它仍排除了近一半之前的死亡人数估计。150万至225万的区间包含了69%关于实际超额死亡人数的模拟结果，比之前更宽泛的（100万至200万）合理估计范围还要大。190万超额死亡人数的中位数占危险人群的21%。本文的补充材料可在以下网址获取：http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546 。
