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“100万至300万之间”:迈向柬埔寨十年历史(1970 - 1979年)的人口结构重建

'Between one and three million': towards the demographic reconstruction of a decade of Cambodian history (1970-79).

作者信息

Heuveline P

出版信息

Popul Stud (Camb). 1998 Mar;52(1):49-65. doi: 10.1080/0032472031000150176.

DOI:10.1080/0032472031000150176
PMID:11619945
Abstract

Estimates of mortality in Camabodia during the Khmer Rouge regime (1975-79) range from 20,000 deaths according to former Khmer Rouge sources, to over three million victims according to Vietnamese government sources. This paper uses an unusual data source - the 1992 electoral lists registered by the United Nations - to estimate the population size after the Khmer Rouge regime and the extent of "excess" mortality in the 1970s. These data also provide the first breakdown of population by single year of age, which allows analysis of the age structure of "excess" mortality and inference of the relative importance of violence as a cause of death in that period. The estimates derived here are more comparable with the higher estimates made in the past. In addition, the analysis of likely causes of death that could have generated the age pattern of "excess" mortality clearly shows a larger contribution of direct or violent mortality than has been previously recognized.

摘要

据红色高棉方面的说法,柬埔寨在红色高棉政权时期(1975 - 1979年)的死亡人数估计为20000人;而据越南政府方面的说法,死亡人数超过300万。本文使用了一个不同寻常的数据源——联合国登记的1992年选举名单——来估计红色高棉政权之后的人口规模以及20世纪70年代“超额”死亡的程度。这些数据还首次按单一年龄对人口进行了细分,这使得能够分析“超额”死亡的年龄结构,并推断出暴力作为该时期死亡原因的相对重要性。此处得出的估计数与过去较高的估计数更具可比性。此外,对可能导致“超额”死亡年龄模式的死亡原因分析清楚地表明,直接或暴力死亡的占比要比此前认识到的更大。

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