Bohn Sarah, Pugatch Todd
Public Policy Institute of California, 500 Washington Street, San Francisco, CA, 94111, USA.
Oregon State University and IZA, Ballard Ext Hall 311, Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA.
Demography. 2015 Oct;52(5):1543-70. doi: 10.1007/s13524-015-0416-z.
We provide the first evidence on the causal effect of border enforcement on the full spatial distribution of Mexican immigrants to the United States. We address the endogeneity of border enforcement with an instrumental variables strategy based on administrative delays in budgetary allocations for border security. We find that 1,000 additional Border Patrol officers assigned to prevent unauthorized migrants from entering a U.S. state decreases that state's share of Mexican immigrants by 21.9 %. Our estimates imply that if border enforcement had not changed from 1994 to 2011, the shares of Mexican immigrants locating in California and Texas would each be 8 percentage points greater, with all other states' shares lower or unchanged.
我们首次提供了关于边境执法对墨西哥移民在美国全空间分布的因果效应的证据。我们采用基于边境安全预算分配行政延迟的工具变量策略来解决边境执法的内生性问题。我们发现，额外部署1000名边境巡逻人员以阻止非法移民进入美国某州，会使该州墨西哥移民的比例降低21.9%。我们的估计表明，如果1994年至2011年边境执法情况没有变化，那么在加利福尼亚州和得克萨斯州的墨西哥移民比例分别会高出8个百分点，而其他所有州的比例则会降低或保持不变。
