Whitty Christopher J M
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK
Int Health. 2015 Sep;7(5):302-3. doi: 10.1093/inthealth/ihv049.
Eradication of a disease is one of the greatest gifts any generation can give to subsequent ones, but most attempts have failed. The biggest challenges occur in the final stages of eradication and elimination campaigns. These include falling public support as a disease becomes less common; the emergence of groups who do not support eradication; spiralling costs; and the evolution of drug, vaccine or insecticide resistance. Mass campaigns become less effective as the disease fragments and modelling becomes less reliable. Optimism bias is the biggest risk to any eradication campaign and the long endgame must be planned for from the beginning.
根除一种疾病是任何一代人能够给予后代的最伟大礼物之一，但大多数尝试都失败了。最大的挑战出现在根除和消除运动的最后阶段。这些挑战包括随着疾病变得不那么常见，公众支持度下降；出现不支持根除的群体；成本不断攀升；以及药物、疫苗或杀虫剂耐药性的演变。随着疾病碎片化，大规模运动的效果会降低，模型也变得不那么可靠。乐观偏差是任何根除运动面临的最大风险，必须从一开始就为漫长的最后阶段制定计划。
