Reckien Diana, Flacke Johannes, Olazabal Marta, Heidrich Oliver
Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, Columbia University, New York City, New York, United States of America.
Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands.
PLoS One. 2015 Aug 28;10(8):e0135597. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0135597. eCollection 2015.
Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future.
由于大多数人生活在城市，城市被视为全球适应和缓解气候变化努力的关键参与者。然而，在欧洲这个高度城市化且在环境政策方面最为先进的地区之一，气候变化应对措施的区域分布、目标和范围存在相当大的差异。本文探讨了11个欧洲国家200个大中型城市中造成这种差异的潜在因素。我们对城市的制度、社会经济、环境和脆弱性特征进行统计调查，将其作为城市气候变化规划发展的潜在驱动因素或障碍。我们的结果表明，气候网络成员身份、人口规模、人均国内生产总值和适应能力等因素是缓解和适应计划的驱动因素。相比之下，失业率、夏季气温较高、靠近海岸以及预计未来受气候影响的程度等因素则是障碍。我们发现，总体而言，主要是大型繁荣城市参与气候规划，而脆弱城市以及未来面临严重气候影响风险的城市则不太积极。我们的分析表明，欧洲城市的气候变化规划并不积极主动，即没有受到预期未来影响的显著影响。相反，我们发现城市当前的适应能力与气候规划密切相关。除了需要进一步探索这些关系外，我们认为有必要为规模较小、资源较少的城市以及未来面临气候变化影响高风险的城市提供更多经济和制度支持。
