Department of Government, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Nat Commun. 2022 Jun 10;13(1):3360. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31059-z.
Whether disasters influence adaptation actions in cities is contested. Yet, the extant knowledge base primarily consists of single or small-N case studies, so there is no global overview of the evidence on disaster impacts and adaptation. Here, we use regression analysis to explore the effects of disaster frequency and severity on four adaptation action types in 549 cities. In countries with greater adaptive capacity, economic losses increase city-level actions targeting recently experienced disaster event types, as well as actions to strengthen general disaster preparedness. An increase in disaster frequency reduces actions targeting hazard types other than those that recently occurred, while human losses have few effects. Comparisons between cities across levels of adaptive capacity indicate a wealth effect. More affluent countries incur greater economic damages from disasters, but also have higher governance capacity, creating both incentives and opportunities for adaptation measures. While disaster frequency and severity had a limited impact on adaptation actions overall, results are sensitive to which disaster impacts, adaptation action types, and adaptive capacities are considered.
灾害是否会影响城市的适应行动存在争议。然而，现有的知识基础主要由单一或小 N 案例研究组成，因此，没有关于灾害影响和适应的全球证据概述。在这里，我们使用回归分析来探讨灾害频率和严重程度对 549 个城市的四种适应行动类型的影响。在适应能力较强的国家，经济损失的增加会促使针对最近发生的灾害事件类型以及加强一般灾害准备的行动，针对最近发生的灾害以外的灾害类型的行动则会减少。灾害频率的增加减少了针对最近未发生灾害类型的行动，而人员伤亡的影响则较小。在适应能力不同的城市之间进行比较表明存在财富效应。较富裕的国家因灾害造成的经济损失更大，但治理能力也更强，这为适应措施创造了激励和机会。尽管灾害频率和严重程度对适应行动的总体影响有限，但结果对所考虑的灾害影响、适应行动类型和适应能力较为敏感。
