Whittaker J B, Tribe N P
Department of Biological Sciences, Institute of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK.
J Anim Ecol. 1998 Nov;67(6):987-91. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2656.1998.6760987.x.
Measurements of the density of an upland population of the spittlebug Neophilaenus lineatus (L.) (Homoptera, Auchenorrhyncha) were made from 1961 to 1997. Population change from year to year is shown to be largely density-independent. Analyses of meteorological records over the 37-year period showed that the weather variable with the highest correlation with population change was mean minimum temperature in September. A simple model was constructed relating numerical changes from 1961 to 1992 to temperature, and this was found to explain 75% of the change in this population. The model was used to predict numerical change from 1993 to 1997 over which period it explained 70% of the change. The model predicts that a projected rise in mean temperature of 1°C would increase the mean population density of N. lineatus by 50%. Experimental cloches at the upland site which raised mean temperature by 1°C, had N. lineatus densities which were 157% higher than in adjacent control quadrats. An experimental raising of field temperature at a lowland site where population change had been shown to be density dependent did not result in density changes, although dates of hatching were earlier.
1961年至1997年期间，对沫蝉新黑沫蝉（Neophilaenus lineatus (L.)，同翅目，头喙亚目）高地种群的密度进行了测量。结果表明，年际间的种群变化在很大程度上与密度无关。对这37年期间气象记录的分析表明，与种群变化相关性最高的气象变量是9月的平均最低温度。构建了一个简单模型，将1961年至1992年的数量变化与温度联系起来，发现该模型可以解释该种群75%的变化。该模型用于预测1993年至1997年的数量变化，在此期间它解释了70%的变化。该模型预测，预计平均温度升高1°C将使新黑沫蝉的平均种群密度增加50%。在高地站点，将平均温度提高1°C的实验性钟罩内，新黑沫蝉的密度比相邻对照样方高157%。在低地站点进行的一项实验性野外温度升高实验中，尽管孵化日期提前，但种群变化已显示出与密度相关，却并未导致密度变化。
