ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, Switzerland
ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, Switzerland.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2015 Nov 13;373(2054). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2015.0146.
The term 'feedback' is used ubiquitously in climate research, but implies varied meanings in different contexts. From a specific process that locally affects a quantity, to a formal framework that attempts to determine a global response to a forcing, researchers use this term to separate, simplify and quantify parts of the complex Earth system. We combine new model results with a historical and educational perspective to organize existing ideas around feedbacks and linear models. Our results suggest that the state- and forcing-dependency of feedbacks are probably not appreciated enough, and not considered appropriately in many studies. A non-constant feedback parameter likely explains some of the differences in estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity from different methods and types of data. Clarifying the value and applicability of the linear forcing feedback framework and a better quantification of feedbacks on various timescales and spatial scales remains a high priority in order to better understand past and predict future changes in the climate system.
“反馈”一词在气候研究中被广泛使用,但在不同的上下文中含义各不相同。从局部影响某个量的特定过程,到试图确定全球对强迫的响应的正式框架,研究人员使用这个术语来分离、简化和量化复杂地球系统的各个部分。我们结合新的模型结果和历史及教育视角,围绕反馈和线性模型组织现有的观点。我们的结果表明,反馈的状态和强迫依赖性可能没有得到足够的重视,并且在许多研究中没有得到适当考虑。非恒定的反馈参数可能解释了不同方法和类型的数据估计得出的平衡气候敏感性之间的一些差异。为了更好地理解气候系统过去和预测未来的变化,澄清线性强迫反馈框架的价值和适用性,并更好地量化各种时间和空间尺度上的反馈,仍然是当务之急。