Milazzo A, Giles L C, Zhang Y, Koehler A P, Hiller J E, Bi P
School of Public Health,The University of Adelaide,Adelaide,SA,Australia.
Communicable Disease Control Branch,Department for Health and Ageing,Adelaide,SA,Australia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2016 Apr;144(6):1231-40. doi: 10.1017/S0950268815002587. Epub 2015 Nov 2.
Changing trends in foodborne disease are influenced by many factors, including temperature. Globally and in Australia, warmer ambient temperatures are projected to rise if climate change continues. Salmonella spp. are a temperature-sensitive pathogen and rising temperature can have a substantial effect on disease burden affecting human health. We examined the relationship between temperature and Salmonella spp. and serotype notifications in Adelaide, Australia. Time-series Poisson regression models were fit to estimate the effect of temperature during warmer months on Salmonella spp. and serotype cases notified from 1990 to 2012. Long-term trends, seasonality, autocorrelation and lagged effects were included in the statistical models. Daily Salmonella spp. counts increased by 1·3% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1·013, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·008-1·019] per 1 °C rise in temperature in the warm season with greater increases observed in specific serotype and phage-type cases ranging from 3·4% (IRR 1·034, 95% CI 1·008-1·061) to 4·4% (IRR 1·044, 95% CI 1·024-1·064). We observed increased cases of S. Typhimurium PT9 and S. Typhimurium PT108 notifications above a threshold of 39 °C. This study has identified the impact of warm season temperature on different Salmonella spp. strains and confirms higher temperature has a greater effect on phage-type notifications. The findings will contribute targeted information for public health policy interventions, including food safety programmes during warmer weather.
食源性疾病趋势的变化受到包括温度在内的多种因素影响。在全球及澳大利亚，如果气候变化持续，预计环境温度将升高。沙门氏菌属是一种对温度敏感的病原体，气温上升会对影响人类健康的疾病负担产生重大影响。我们研究了澳大利亚阿德莱德的温度与沙门氏菌属及血清型通报之间的关系。采用时间序列泊松回归模型来估计温暖月份的温度对1990年至2012年通报的沙门氏菌属及血清型病例的影响。统计模型纳入了长期趋势、季节性、自相关性和滞后效应。温暖季节温度每升高1°C，每日沙门氏菌属计数增加1·3%[发病率比（IRR）1·013，95%置信区间（CI）1·008 - 1·019]，特定血清型和噬菌体类型病例的增加幅度更大，从3·4%（IRR 1·034，95% CI 1·008 - 1·061）到4·4%（IRR 1·044，95% CI 1·024 - 1·064）。我们观察到，当温度超过39°C时，鼠伤寒沙门氏菌PT9和鼠伤寒沙门氏菌PT108的通报病例增加。本研究确定了温暖季节温度对不同沙门氏菌属菌株的影响，并证实较高温度对噬菌体类型通报的影响更大。这些发现将为公共卫生政策干预提供有针对性的信息，包括温暖天气期间的食品安全计划。
