Robinson Elizabeth J, Gregory Joy, Mulvenna Vanora, Segal Yonatan, Sullivan Sheena G
School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Victorian Government Department of Health, Melbourne, Australia.
Foodborne Pathog Dis. 2022 May;19(5):341-348. doi: 10.1089/fpd.2021.0093. Epub 2022 Apr 11.
Weather can impact infectious disease transmission, particularly for heat-sensitive pathogens, such as . We conducted an ecological time-series analysis to estimate short-term associations between nonoutbreak-related notifications of and weather conditions-temperature and rainfall-in Melbourne, Australia from 2000 to 2019. Distributed lag nonlinear models were created to analyze weather-salmonellosis associations and potential lag times on a weekly time scale, controlling for seasonality and long-term trends. Warmer temperatures were associated with increased risk of notification. Effects were temporally lagged, with the highest associations observed for warm temperatures 2-6 (greatest at 4) weeks before notification. The overall estimated relative risk of salmonellosis increased twofold at 33°C compared to the average weekly temperature (20.35°C) for the 8-week period preceding the disease notification. For Typhimurium alone, this occurred at temperatures over 32°C. There were no statistically significant associations with rainfall and notification rates in any of the analyses performed. This study demonstrates the short-term influences of warm temperatures on infections in Melbourne over a 20-year period. Salmonelloses are already the second most notified gastrointestinal diseases in Victoria, and these findings suggest that notifications may increase with increasing temperatures. This evidence contributes to previous findings that indicate concerns for public health with continued warm weather.
天气会影响传染病的传播，尤其是对于对热敏感的病原体，如…… 我们进行了一项生态时间序列分析，以估计2000年至2019年澳大利亚墨尔本非疫情相关的……通报与天气状况（温度和降雨量）之间的短期关联。创建了分布滞后非线性模型，以分析天气与沙门氏菌病的关联以及每周时间尺度上的潜在滞后时间，并控制季节性和长期趋势。温度升高与通报风险增加相关。影响存在时间滞后，在通报前2至6周（在4周时最大）的温暖温度下观察到最高的关联。与疾病通报前8周的平均每周温度（20.35°C）相比，在33°C时沙门氏菌病的总体估计相对风险增加了两倍。仅对于鼠伤寒沙门氏菌，在温度超过32°C时会出现这种情况。在任何分析中，降雨量与通报率均无统计学上的显著关联。这项研究证明了20年来温暖温度对墨尔本……感染的短期影响。沙门氏菌病已经是维多利亚州第二大通报最多的胃肠道疾病，这些发现表明通报可能会随着温度升高而增加。这一证据补充了先前的发现，即持续温暖的天气对公众健康构成担忧。
