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金融努森数:高精度订单簿信息证实连续价格动态和不对称买卖结构的分解。

Financial Knudsen number: Breakdown of continuous price dynamics and asymmetric buy-and-sell structures confirmed by high-precision order-book information.

作者信息

Yura Yoshihiro, Takayasu Hideki, Sornette Didier, Takayasu Misako

机构信息

Department of Computational Intelligence and Systems Science, Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology 4259 Nagatsuta-cho, Yokohama 226-8502, Japan.

Sony Computer Science Laboratories, 3-14-13, Higashi-Gotanda, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo, 141-0022, Japan.

出版信息

Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2015 Oct;92(4):042811. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.92.042811. Epub 2015 Oct 22.

Abstract

We generalize the description of the dynamics of the order book of financial markets in terms of a Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of incoming, exiting, and annihilating particles by presenting a model of the velocity on each side (buy and sell) independently. The improved model builds on the time-averaged number of particles in the inner layer and its change per unit time, where the inner layer is revealed by the correlations between price velocity and change in the number of particles (limit orders). This allows us to introduce the Knudsen number of the financial Brownian particle motion and its asymmetric version (on the buy and sell sides). Not being considered previously, the asymmetric Knudsen numbers are crucial in finance in order to detect asymmetric price changes. The Knudsen numbers allows us to characterize the conditions for the market dynamics to be correctly described by a continuous stochastic process. Not questioned until now for large liquid markets such as the USD-JPY and EUR-USD exchange rates, we show that there are regimes when the Knudsen numbers are so high that discrete particle effects dominate, such as during market stresses and crashes. We document the presence of imbalances of particles depletion rates on the buy and sell sides that are associated with high Knudsen numbers and violent directional price changes. This indicator can detect the direction of the price motion at the early stage while the usual volatility risk measure is blind to the price direction.

摘要

我们通过提出一个关于每一侧(买卖)速度的独立模型,推广了金融市场订单簿动态的描述,该描述是基于一个嵌入在流入、流出和湮灭粒子流体中的布朗粒子。改进后的模型基于内层粒子的时间平均数量及其单位时间的变化,其中内层是由价格速度与粒子数量(限价订单)变化之间的相关性揭示的。这使我们能够引入金融布朗粒子运动的克努森数及其不对称版本(在买卖两侧)。此前未被考虑的不对称克努森数在金融领域对于检测不对称价格变化至关重要。克努森数使我们能够刻画市场动态由连续随机过程正确描述的条件。对于诸如美元兑日元和欧元兑美元汇率等大型流动性市场,到目前为止尚未受到质疑,我们表明存在这样的情况,即克努森数如此之高以至于离散粒子效应占主导,例如在市场压力和崩溃期间。我们记录了买卖两侧粒子耗尽率的不平衡现象,这些不平衡与高克努森数和剧烈的方向性价格变化相关。该指标能够在早期阶段检测价格运动的方向,而通常的波动率风险度量对价格方向是不敏感的。

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