Drum Ryan G, Ribic Christine A, Koch Katie, Lonsdorf Eric, Grant Evan, Ahlering Marissa, Barnhill Laurel, Dailey Thomas, Lor Socheata, Mueller Connie, Pavlacky David C, Rideout Catherine, Sample David
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bloomington, MN, United States of America.
U.S. Geological Survey, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Madison, WI, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2015 Nov 16;10(11):e0142525. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0142525. eCollection 2015.
Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.
美国草原鸟类的栖息地已大幅减少。现存的草原日益碎片化，大多为私人所有，且栖息地质量和保护状况差异极大。由于问题的范围和复杂性，再加上生物学、社会学和经济方面的不确定性，协调一致的草原鸟类保护战略应对措施难以制定。我们描述了一个协作式结构化决策（SDM）研讨会的结果，该研讨会专注于将景观变化的社会和经济驱动因素与草原鸟类种群结果联系起来。我们使用一系列快速原型模型，确定并评估了草原鸟类保护的替代策略。我们模拟了假设景观中草原和农业覆盖的变化，这些变化是由不同土地所有者针对替代社会经济保护政策决策所做出的决定导致的。利用年度周期所有三个阶段（繁殖、越冬和迁徙）土地覆盖的最终变化来估计草原鸟类种群的变化。我们的结果表明，成功的草原鸟类保护可能取决于与经营性农业土地上的生态系统服务建立联系，以及开展基于草原的营销活动以吸引公众参与。随着进一步发展，将土地所有者决策与生物学结果联系起来的空间模型可能成为制定保护政策决策的重要工具。要清楚地理解并系统应对草原鸟类面临的诸多保护挑战，可能需要建立一个协调一致的非传统伙伴关系。
