Dennig Francis, Budolfson Mark B, Fleurbaey Marc, Siebert Asher, Socolow Robert H
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs-University Center for Human Values, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
Princeton Environmental Institute (PEI), Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Dec 29;112(52):15827-32. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1513967112. Epub 2015 Dec 7.
Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)-a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)-in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model's regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon-as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.
气候与经济综合评估模型可提供碳的社会成本估算,并为气候政策提供参考。我们创建了气候与经济区域综合模型(RICE)的一个变体——气候与经济动态综合模型(DICE)的区域分解版本,在此模型中,我们对模型各区域内的经济不平等现象进行了更细致的描述。这使我们能够模拟一个普遍观察结果,即气候变化影响在各区域内分布不均,且贫困人口比其他人群更易受影响。我们的结果表明,这对碳的社会成本很重要——潜在地,对于最优碳价格而言,其重要性堪比斯特恩与诺德豪斯关于贴现的争论。