Budolfson Mark, Dennig Francis, Errickson Frank, Feindt Simon, Ferranna Maddalena, Fleurbaey Marc, Klenert David, Kornek Ulrike, Kuruc Kevin, Méjean Aurélie, Peng Wei, Scovronick Noah, Spears Dean, Wagner Fabian, Zuber Stéphane
Department of Environmental and Occupational Health and Justice, Rutgers School of Public Health, Center for Population-Level Bioethics, and Department of Philosophy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
Division of Social Sciences, Yale-NUS College, Singapore, Singapore.
Nat Clim Chang. 2021 Dec;11(12):1111-1116. doi: 10.1038/s41558-021-01217-0. Epub 2021 Nov 29.
Existing estimates of optimal climate policy ignore the possibility that carbon tax revenues could be used in a progressive way; model results therefore typically imply that near-term climate action comes at some cost to the poor. Using the Nested Inequalities Climate Economy (NICE) model, we show that an equal per capita refund of carbon tax revenues implies that achieving a 2°C target can pay large and immediate dividends for improving well-being, reducing inequality and alleviating poverty. In an optimal policy calculation that weighs the benefits against the costs of mitigation, the recommended policy is characterized by aggressive near-term climate action followed by a slower climb towards full decarbonization; this pattern-which is driven by a carbon revenue Laffer curve-prevents runaway warming while also preserving tax revenues for redistribution. Accounting for these dynamics corrects a long-standing bias against strong immediate climate action in the optimal policy literature.
现有的最优气候政策评估忽略了碳税收入可以以累进方式使用的可能性;因此,模型结果通常意味着近期的气候行动会给穷人带来一定成本。使用嵌套不等式气候经济(NICE)模型,我们表明,人均等额退还碳税收入意味着实现2°C目标可以为改善福祉、减少不平等和缓解贫困带来巨大且即时的红利。在权衡减排成本与收益的最优政策计算中,推荐的政策特点是近期积极采取气候行动,随后朝着全面脱碳的方向缓慢推进;这种由碳收入拉弗曲线驱动的模式可防止气候变暖失控,同时还能保留税收用于再分配。考虑到这些动态因素,纠正了最优政策文献中长期存在的对立即采取强有力气候行动的偏见。