Välimäki Kaisa, Lindén Andreas, Lehikoinen Aleksi
The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 17, 00014, Helsinki, Finland.
Aronia Coastal Zone Research Team, Åbo Akademi University and Novia University of Applied Sciences, P.O. Box 1, 10601, Ekenäs, Finland.
Oecologia. 2016 May;181(1):313-21. doi: 10.1007/s00442-015-3525-x. Epub 2016 Jan 27.
A multitude of studies confirm that species have changed their distribution ranges towards higher elevations and towards the poles, as has been predicted by climate change forecasts. However, there is large interspecific variation in the velocity of range shifts. From a conservation perspective, it is important to understand which factors explain variation in the speed and the extent of range shifts, as these might be related to the species' extinction risk. Here, we study shifts in the mean latitude of occurrence, as weighted by population density, in different groups of landbirds using 40 years of line transect data from Finland. Our results show that the velocity of such density shifts differed among migration strategies and increased with decreasing body size of species, while breeding habitat had no influence. The slower velocity of large species could be related to their longer generation time and lower per capita reproduction that can decrease the dispersal ability compared to smaller species. In contrast to some earlier studies of range margin shifts, resident birds and partial migrants showed faster range shifts, while fully migratory species were moving more slowly. The results suggest that migratory species, especially long-distance migrants, which often show decreasing population trends, might also have problems in adjusting their distribution ranges to keep pace with global warming.
大量研究证实，物种已按照气候变化预测的那样，将其分布范围向更高海拔和两极地区转移。然而，物种分布范围转移的速度存在很大的种间差异。从保护的角度来看，了解哪些因素能够解释分布范围转移的速度和程度的变化非常重要，因为这些因素可能与物种的灭绝风险相关。在此，我们利用来自芬兰的40年样线数据，研究了不同陆鸟群体中以种群密度加权的平均出现纬度的变化。我们的结果表明，这种密度转移的速度在不同的迁徙策略之间存在差异，并且随着物种体型的减小而增加，而繁殖栖息地则没有影响。大型物种转移速度较慢可能与其较长的世代时间和较低的人均繁殖率有关，与小型物种相比，这可能会降低其扩散能力。与一些早期关于分布范围边缘转移的研究不同，留鸟和部分候鸟的分布范围转移速度更快，而完全迁徙的物种移动得更慢。结果表明，迁徙物种，尤其是经常呈现种群数量下降趋势的长途迁徙物种，在调整其分布范围以跟上全球变暖的步伐方面可能也存在问题。
