Brunet-Navarro Pau, Jochheim Hubert, Muys Bart
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany.
Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, University of Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E-2411, BE-3001, Leuven, Belgium.
Glob Chang Biol. 2016 Jul;22(7):2555-69. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13235. Epub 2016 Mar 4.
In addition to forest ecosystems, wood products are carbon pools that can be strategically managed to mitigate climate change. Wood product models (WPMs) simulating the carbon balance of wood production, use and end of life can complement forest growth models to evaluate the mitigation potential of the forest sector as a whole. WPMs can be used to compare scenarios of product use and explore mitigation strategies. A considerable number of WPMs have been developed in the last three decades, but there is no review available analysing their functionality and performance. This study analyses and compares 41 WPMs. One surprising initial result was that we discovered the erroneous implementation of a few concepts and assumptions in some of the models. We further described and compared the models using six model characteristics (bucking allocation, industrial processes, carbon pools, product removal, recycling and substitution effects) and three model-use characteristics (system boundaries, model initialization and evaluation of results). Using a set of indicators based on the model characteristics, we classified models using a hierarchical clustering technique and differentiated them according to their increasing degrees of complexity and varying levels of user support. For purposes of simulating carbon stock in wood products, models with a simple structure may be sufficient, but to compare climate change mitigation options, complex models are needed. The number of models has increased substantially over the last ten years, introducing more diversity and accuracy. Calculation of substitution effects and recycling has also become more prominent. However, the lack of data is still an important constraint for a more realistic estimation of carbon stocks and fluxes. Therefore, if the sector wants to demonstrate the environmental quality of its products, it should make it a priority to provide reliable life cycle inventory data, particularly regarding aspects of time and location.
除了森林生态系统外，木制品也是碳库，可以通过战略管理来缓解气候变化。模拟木材生产、使用和生命周期结束时碳平衡的木制品模型（WPM）可以补充森林生长模型，以评估整个森林部门的缓解潜力。WPM可用于比较产品使用情景并探索缓解策略。在过去三十年中已经开发了大量的WPM，但目前还没有对其功能和性能进行分析的综述。本研究分析并比较了41个WPM。一个令人惊讶的初步结果是，我们发现一些模型中存在一些概念和假设的错误实施。我们进一步使用六个模型特征（造材分配、工业流程、碳库、产品移除、回收和替代效应）和三个模型使用特征（系统边界、模型初始化和结果评估）来描述和比较这些模型。使用一组基于模型特征的指标，我们使用层次聚类技术对模型进行分类，并根据其复杂度的增加程度和用户支持水平的不同对它们进行区分。为了模拟木制品中的碳储量，结构简单的模型可能就足够了，但要比较气候变化缓解方案，则需要复杂的模型。在过去十年中，模型数量大幅增加，带来了更多的多样性和准确性。替代效应和回收的计算也变得更加突出。然而，数据的缺乏仍然是更现实地估计碳储量和通量的一个重要制约因素。因此，如果该部门想要展示其产品的环境质量，就应该优先提供可靠的生命周期清单数据，特别是关于时间和地点方面的数据。
