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高温和空气污染的高分辨率暴露建模及其对死亡率的影响。

High resolution exposure modelling of heat and air pollution and the impact on mortality.

机构信息

Air Quality Department, DCMR Environmental Protection Agency Rijnmond, P.O. Box 843, 3100 AV Schiedam, The Netherlands; Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

出版信息

Environ Int. 2016 Apr-May;89-90:102-9. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.01.013. Epub 2016 Jan 28.

DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2016.01.013
PMID:26826367
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Elevated temperature and air pollution have been associated with increased mortality. Exposure to heat and air pollution, as well as the density of vulnerable groups varies within cities. The objective was to investigate the extent of neighbourhood differences in mortality risk due to heat and air pollution in a city with a temperate maritime climate.

METHODS

A case-crossover design was used to study associations between heat, air pollution and mortality. Different thermal indicators and air pollutants (PM10, NO2, O3) were reconstructed at high spatial resolution to improve exposure classification. Daily exposures were linked to individual mortality cases over a 15year period.

RESULTS

Significant interaction between maximum air temperature (Tamax) and PM10 was observed. During "summer smog" days (Tamax>25°C and PM10>50μg/m(3)), the mortality risk at lag 2 was 7% higher compared to the reference (Tamax 15°C and PM10 15μg/m(3)). Persons above age 85 living alone were at highest risk.

CONCLUSION

We found significant synergistic effects of high temperatures and air pollution on mortality. Single living elderly were the most vulnerable group. Due to spatial differences in temperature and air pollution, mortality risks varied substantially between neighbourhoods, with a difference up to 7%.

摘要

背景

高温和空气污染与死亡率增加有关。在城市中,人们会暴露在高温和空气污染中,且弱势群体的密度也有所不同。本研究的目的是探究在一个具有温和海洋性气候的城市中,由于高温和空气污染导致的死亡率在邻里之间的差异程度。

方法

本研究采用病例交叉设计来研究高温、空气污染与死亡率之间的关系。为了改善暴露分类,我们以高空间分辨率重建了不同的热指标和空气污染物(PM10、NO2、O3)。在 15 年的时间里,将每日暴露与个体死亡病例相关联。

结果

我们观察到最高空气温度(Tamax)和 PM10 之间存在显著的交互作用。在“夏季烟雾”日(Tamax>25°C 且 PM10>50μg/m(3)),与参考组(Tamax 15°C 且 PM10 15μg/m(3))相比,滞后 2 天的死亡率风险高 7%。独居的 85 岁以上老年人的风险最高。

结论

我们发现高温和空气污染对死亡率有显著的协同作用。单独居住的老年人是最脆弱的群体。由于温度和空气污染在空间上存在差异,死亡率在邻里之间存在显著差异,最大可达 7%。

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