Bridging the divide: a model-data approach to Polar and Alpine microbiology.

Advances in microbial ecology in the cryosphere continue to be driven by empirical approaches including field sampling and laboratory-based analyses. Although mathematical models are commonly used to investigate the physical dynamics of Polar and Alpine regions, they are rarely applied in microbial studies. Yet integrating modelling approaches with ongoing observational and laboratory-based work is ideally suited to Polar and Alpine microbial ecosystems given their harsh environmental and biogeochemical characteristics, simple trophic structures, distinct seasonality, often difficult accessibility, geographical expansiveness and susceptibility to accelerated climate changes. In this opinion paper, we explain how mathematical modelling ideally complements field and laboratory-based analyses. We thus argue that mathematical modelling is a powerful tool for the investigation of these extreme environments and that fully integrated, interdisciplinary model-data approaches could help the Polar and Alpine microbiology community address some of the great research challenges of the 21st century (e.g. assessing global significance and response to climate change). However, a better integration of field and laboratory work with model design and calibration/validation, as well as a stronger focus on quantitative information is required to advance models that can be used to make predictions and upscale processes and fluxes beyond what can be captured by observations alone.