Moon Twila, Ahlstrøm Andreas, Goelzer Heiko, Lipscomb William, Nowicki Sophie
1National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), 449 UCB, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0449 USA.
2Department of Glaciology and Climate, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Curr Clim Change Rep. 2018;4(3):211-222. doi: 10.1007/s40641-018-0107-0. Epub 2018 Jul 10.
This paper reviews sea level contributions from land ice across the Arctic, including Greenland. We summarize ice loss measurement methods, ice loss mechanisms, and recent observations and projections, and highlight research advances over the last 3-5 years and remaining scientific challenges.
Mass loss across the Arctic began to accelerate during the late twentieth century, with projections of continued loss across all future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Recent research has improved knowledge of ice hydrology and surface processes, influences of atmospheric and oceanic changes on land ice, and boundary conditions such as subglacial topography. New computer models can also more accurately simulate glacier and ice sheet evolution.
Rapid Arctic ice loss is underway, and future ice loss and sea level rise are guaranteed. Research continues to better understand and model physical processes and to improve projections of ice loss rates, especially after 2050.
本文回顾了包括格陵兰岛在内的北极地区陆地冰盖对海平面上升的贡献。我们总结了冰损失的测量方法、冰损失机制以及近期的观测和预测，并重点介绍了过去3至5年的研究进展以及尚存的科学挑战。
北极地区的质量损失在20世纪后期开始加速，预计在未来所有温室气体排放情景下都会持续损失。最近的研究增进了对冰水文和地表过程、大气和海洋变化对陆地冰盖的影响以及诸如冰下地形等边界条件的认识。新的计算机模型也能够更准确地模拟冰川和冰盖的演变。
北极地区的冰正在迅速流失，未来的冰损失和海平面上升是必然的。研究仍在继续，以便更好地理解物理过程并建立模型，从而改进对冰损失率的预测，特别是2050年之后的预测。
