Fyfe John C, von Salzen Knut, Gillett Nathan P, Arora Vivek K, Flato Gregory M, McConnell Joseph R
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria BC, V8W 3R4, Canada.
Sci Rep. 2013;3:2645. doi: 10.1038/srep02645.
Observations show that Arctic-average surface temperature increased from 1900 to 1940, decreased from 1940 to 1970, and increased from 1970 to present. Here, using new observational data and improved climate models employing observed natural and anthropogenic forcings, we demonstrate that contributions from greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, along with explosive volcanic eruptions, explain most of this observed variation in Arctic surface temperature since 1900. In addition, climate model simulations without natural and anthropogenic forcings indicate very low probabilities that the observed trends in each of these periods were due to internal climate variability alone. Arctic climate change has important environmental and economic impacts and these results improve our understanding of past Arctic climate change and our confidence in future projections.
观测结果表明，北极地区的平均地表温度在1900年至1940年期间上升，在1940年至1970年期间下降，而在1970年至今则呈上升趋势。在此，我们利用新的观测数据以及采用观测到的自然和人为强迫因素的改进气候模型，证明自1900年以来，温室气体和气溶胶排放以及火山爆发对北极地表温度观测到的大部分变化起到了解释作用。此外，没有自然和人为强迫因素的气候模型模拟表明，这些时期中每个时期观测到的趋势仅由内部气候变率导致的可能性非常低。北极气候变化具有重要的环境和经济影响，这些结果增进了我们对过去北极气候变化的理解以及对未来预测的信心。
