Attaway David F, Jacobsen Kathryn H, Falconer Allan, Manca Germana, Waters Nigel M
Department of Geography and GeoInformation Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 6C3, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, USA; Esri, 8615 Westwood Center Drive, Vienna, VA 22182, USA.
Department of Global and Community Health, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 5B7, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, USA.
Acta Trop. 2016 Jun;158:248-257. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2016.02.018. Epub 2016 Mar 2.
Risk maps identifying suitable locations for infection transmission are important for public health planning. Data on dengue infection rates are not readily available in most places where the disease is known to occur.
A newly available add-in to Esri's ArcGIS software package, the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Toolset (PA Tools), was used to identify locations within Africa with environmental characteristics likely to be suitable for transmission of dengue virus.
A more accurate, robust, and localized (1 km × 1 km) dengue risk map for Africa was created based on bioclimatic layers, elevation data, high-resolution population data, and other environmental factors that a search of the peer-reviewed literature showed to be associated with dengue risk. Variables related to temperature, precipitation, elevation, and population density were identified as good predictors of dengue suitability. Areas of high dengue suitability occur primarily within West Africa and parts of Central Africa and East Africa, but even in these regions the suitability is not homogenous.
This risk mapping technique for an infection transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes draws on entomological, epidemiological, and geographic data. The method could be applied to other infectious diseases (such as Zika) in order to provide new insights for public health officials and others making decisions about where to increase disease surveillance activities and implement infection prevention and control efforts. The ability to map threats to human and animal health is important for tracking vectorborne and other emerging infectious diseases and modeling the likely impacts of climate change.
识别感染传播适宜地点的风险地图对公共卫生规划至关重要。在已知登革热发病的大多数地方，登革热感染率数据难以获取。
使用Esri公司ArcGIS软件包中新推出的一款插件——ArcGIS预测分析工具集（PA工具），来确定非洲境内具有可能适宜登革热病毒传播环境特征的地点。
基于生物气候层、海拔数据、高分辨率人口数据以及通过检索同行评议文献发现与登革热风险相关的其他环境因素，绘制了一份更准确、可靠且本地化（1千米×1千米）的非洲登革热风险地图。与温度、降水、海拔和人口密度相关的变量被确定为登革热适宜性的良好预测指标。登革热高度适宜的地区主要出现在西非以及中非和东非的部分地区，但即便在这些地区，适宜性也并非均匀分布。
这种针对伊蚊传播感染的风险绘图技术利用了昆虫学、流行病学和地理数据。该方法可应用于其他传染病（如寨卡病毒病），以便为公共卫生官员及其他负责决定在何处加强疾病监测活动以及开展感染预防和控制工作的人员提供新的见解。绘制对人类和动物健康的威胁地图，对于追踪媒介传播疾病及其他新发传染病以及模拟气候变化可能产生的影响而言至关重要。
