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空间网络中人体身高的蒙特卡罗模拟。

Monte Carlo simulation of body height in a spatial network.

作者信息

Hermanussen M, Aßmann C, Staub K, Groth D

机构信息

Aschauhof, Altenhof, Germany.

Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg Feldkirchenstraße, Bamberg, Germany.

出版信息

Eur J Clin Nutr. 2016 Jun;70(6):671-8. doi: 10.1038/ejcn.2016.45. Epub 2016 Apr 6.

DOI:10.1038/ejcn.2016.45
PMID:27049032
Abstract

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Recent evidence suggests clustering of human body height. We want to assess the consequences of connectedness in a spatial network on height clustering in an artificial society.

SUBJECTS/METHODS: We used an agent-based computer modelling technique (Monte Carlo simulation) and compared simulated height in a spatial network with characteristics of the observed geographic height distribution of three historic cohorts of Swiss military conscripts (conscripted in 1884-1891; 1908-1910; and 2004-2009).

RESULTS

Conscript height shows several characteristic features: (1) height distributions are overdispersed. (2) Conscripts from districts with direct inter-district road connections tend to be similar in height. (3) Clusters of tall and clusters of short stature districts vary over time. Autocorrelations in height between late 19th and early 21st century districts are low. (4) Mean district height depends on the number of connecting roads and on the number of conscripts per district. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we were able to generate these natural characteristics in an artificial society. Already 5% height information from directly connected districts is sufficient to simulate the characteristics of natural height distribution. Very similar observations in regular rectangular networks indicate that the characteristics of Swiss conscript height distributions do not so much result from the particular Swiss geography but rather appear to be general features of spatial networks.

CONCLUSIONS

Spatial connectedness can affect height clustering in an artificial society, similar to that seen in natural cohorts of military conscripts, and strengthen the concept of connectedness being involved in the regulation of human height.

摘要

背景/目的:最近的证据表明人类身高存在聚类现象。我们希望评估人工社会中空间网络连通性对身高聚类的影响。

对象/方法:我们使用基于主体的计算机建模技术(蒙特卡洛模拟),并将空间网络中的模拟身高与瑞士三个历史时期应征入伍士兵队列(1884 - 1891年、1908 - 1910年和2004 - 2009年应征)观察到的地理身高分布特征进行比较。

结果

应征入伍士兵的身高呈现出几个特征:(1)身高分布过度分散。(2)有直接区际道路连接的地区的应征入伍士兵身高往往相似。(3)高个子地区和矮个子地区的聚类随时间变化。19世纪末和21世纪初各地区之间身高的自相关性较低。(4)地区平均身高取决于连接道路的数量和每个地区的应征入伍士兵数量。通过蒙特卡洛模拟,我们能够在人工社会中生成这些自然特征。来自直接相连地区的仅5%的身高信息就足以模拟自然身高分布的特征。在规则矩形网络中的非常相似的观察结果表明,瑞士应征入伍士兵身高分布的特征与其特殊的地理环境关系不大,而似乎是空间网络的普遍特征。

结论

空间连通性可以影响人工社会中的身高聚类,类似于在应征入伍士兵的自然队列中观察到的情况,并强化了连通性参与人类身高调节的概念。

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