Messina Jane P, Kraemer Moritz Ug, Brady Oliver J, Pigott David M, Shearer Freya M, Weiss Daniel J, Golding Nick, Ruktanonchai Corrine W, Gething Peter W, Cohn Emily, Brownstein John S, Khan Kamran, Tatem Andrew J, Jaenisch Thomas, Murray Christopher Jl, Marinho Fatima, Scott Thomas W, Hay Simon I
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Elife. 2016 Apr 19;5:e15272. doi: 10.7554/eLife.15272.
Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.
寨卡病毒于1947年在乌干达被发现，它通过伊蚊传播，而在热带世界的大部分地区，伊蚊也是登革热病毒和基孔肯雅病毒的传播媒介。2007年，密克罗尼西亚联邦的一次疫情引发了公众对公共卫生的关注。2013年，该病毒开始在大洋洲的其他地区传播，2015年，拉丁美洲的巴西爆发了大规模疫情。此次疫情中观察到的与小头畸形和吉兰-巴雷综合征可能存在的关联引发了对寨卡病毒在全球持续传播的担忧，促使世界卫生组织宣布其为国际关注的突发公共卫生事件。我们进行了物种分布建模，以绘制寨卡病毒适宜的环境分布图。我们发现，全球很大一部分热带和亚热带地区具备适宜的环境条件，居住在这些地区的人口超过21.7亿。
