Shaffer Victoria A, Focella Elizabeth S, Scherer Laura D, Zikmund-Fisher Brian J
Department of Health Sciences, Department of Psychological Sciences, University of Missouri Columbia, MO, USA.
Department of Psychology, University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh, Oshkosh, WI, USA.
Patient Educ Couns. 2016 Oct;99(10):1611-9. doi: 10.1016/j.pec.2016.04.004. Epub 2016 Apr 11.
To determine whether representative experience narratives (describing a range of possible experiences) or targeted experience narratives (targeting the direction of forecasting bias) can reduce affective forecasting errors, or errors in predictions of experiences.
In Study 1, participants (N=366) were surveyed about their experiences with 10 common medical events. Those who had never experienced the event provided ratings of predicted discomfort and those who had experienced the event provided ratings of actual discomfort. Participants making predictions were randomly assigned to either the representative experience narrative condition or the control condition in which they made predictions without reading narratives. In Study 2, participants (N=196) were again surveyed about their experiences with these 10 medical events, but participants making predictions were randomly assigned to either the targeted experience narrative condition or the control condition.
Affective forecasting errors were observed in both studies. These forecasting errors were reduced with the use of targeted experience narratives (Study 2) but not representative experience narratives (Study 1).
Targeted, but not representative, narratives improved the accuracy of predicted discomfort.
Public collections of patient experiences should favor stories that target affective forecasting biases over stories representing the range of possible experiences.
确定代表性经验叙述（描述一系列可能的经历）或针对性经验叙述（针对预测偏差的方向）是否能减少情感预测错误，即对经历的预测错误。
在研究1中，对366名参与者进行了关于他们在10种常见医疗事件中的经历的调查。那些从未经历过该事件的人对预测的不适程度进行评分，而那些经历过该事件的人对实际的不适程度进行评分。进行预测的参与者被随机分配到代表性经验叙述组或对照组，对照组在不阅读叙述的情况下进行预测。在研究2中，再次对196名参与者进行了关于这10种医疗事件的经历的调查，但进行预测的参与者被随机分配到针对性经验叙述组或对照组。
两项研究均观察到情感预测错误。使用针对性经验叙述（研究2）可减少这些预测错误，但使用代表性经验叙述（研究1）则不能。
针对性叙述而非代表性叙述提高了预测不适的准确性。
患者经历的公开收集应更倾向于针对情感预测偏差的故事，而非代表一系列可能经历的故事。
