Duan Kai, Sun Ge, Sun Shanlei, Caldwell Peter V, Cohen Erika C, McNulty Steven G, Aldridge Heather D, Zhang Yang
Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Sci Rep. 2016 Apr 21;6:24441. doi: 10.1038/srep24441.
The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in ecosystem productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity is projected to increase by 76 ~ 229 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (8% ~ 24%) while water yield is projected to decrease by 18 ~ 31 mm yr(-1) (4% ~ 7%) by 2100 as a result of the combination of increased air temperature (+1.8 ~ +5.2 °C) and precipitation (+17 ~ +51 mm yr(-1)). The notable divergence in ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration is expected to intensify under higher greenhouse gas emission and associated climate change in the future, posing greater challenges to managing NFs for both ecosystem services.
美国本土的170个国家森林和草原是公共土地，为美国人民提供诸如清洁水源和木材供应等重要的生态系统服务。本研究利用耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）的20个全球气候模型（GCMs）得出的最新气候预测，调查气候变化对两个关键生态系统功能（即产水量和生态系统生产力）的潜在影响。我们发现，未来气候变化可能导致国家森林和草原的产水量显著减少，但生态系统生产力增加。到2100年，由于气温升高（+1.8至+5.2摄氏度）和降水量增加（+17至+51毫米/年），预计生态系统总生产力平均将增加76至229克碳/平方米·年（8%至24%），而产水量预计将减少18至31毫米/年（4%至7%）。在未来更高的温室气体排放和相关气候变化下，供水和碳固存这两种生态系统服务的显著差异预计将加剧，给管理国家森林和草原以实现这两种生态系统服务带来更大挑战。
