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从观察数据进行因果推断。

Causal inference from observational data.

作者信息

Listl Stefan, Jürges Hendrik, Watt Richard G

机构信息

Department of Conservative Dentistry, Translational Health Economics Group (THE Group), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.

Munich Center for the Economics of Aging, Max-Planck-Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Munich, Germany.

出版信息

Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 2016 Oct;44(5):409-15. doi: 10.1111/cdoe.12231. Epub 2016 Apr 25.

Abstract

Randomized controlled trials have long been considered the 'gold standard' for causal inference in clinical research. In the absence of randomized experiments, identification of reliable intervention points to improve oral health is often perceived as a challenge. But other fields of science, such as social science, have always been challenged by ethical constraints to conducting randomized controlled trials. Methods have been established to make causal inference using observational data, and these methods are becoming increasingly relevant in clinical medicine, health policy and public health research. This study provides an overview of state-of-the-art methods specifically designed for causal inference in observational data, including difference-in-differences (DiD) analyses, instrumental variables (IV), regression discontinuity designs (RDD) and fixed-effects panel data analysis. The described methods may be particularly useful in dental research, not least because of the increasing availability of routinely collected administrative data and electronic health records ('big data').

摘要

长期以来,随机对照试验一直被视为临床研究中因果推断的“金标准”。在缺乏随机实验的情况下,确定可靠的干预点以改善口腔健康通常被视为一项挑战。但其他科学领域,如社会科学,一直受到进行随机对照试验的伦理限制的挑战。已经建立了利用观察数据进行因果推断的方法,这些方法在临床医学、卫生政策和公共卫生研究中变得越来越重要。本研究概述了专门为观察数据中的因果推断设计的最新方法,包括差分分析(DiD)、工具变量(IV)、回归断点设计(RDD)和固定效应面板数据分析。所描述的方法在牙科研究中可能特别有用,尤其是因为常规收集的行政数据和电子健康记录(“大数据”)的可用性越来越高。

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