Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia; Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia, South Perth, WA, Australia.
Adv Virus Res. 2016;95:87-147. doi: 10.1016/bs.aivir.2016.02.004. Epub 2016 Apr 8.
Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity.
了解气候变化可能如何影响栽培植物和自然植被未来的病毒病流行，对全球粮食安全和自然生态系统都非常重要。然而，由于气候改变对不同类型的媒介行为的复杂影响，以及以前未知的病毒很容易出现，因此很难获得这种知识。2011 年撰写的一篇综述对气候变化对全球病毒病流行影响的现有数据进行了全面分析。本文总结了其研究结果和另外两项更早的气候变化综述的研究结果，并重点描述了自 2011 年以来发表的关于该主题的研究。它描述了各种直接和间接气候变化参数对宿主、病毒和媒介、病毒控制前景以及许多信息差距和不足的可能影响。最近，在理解一些气候变化参数的可能影响方面取得了令人鼓舞的进展，特别是在少数重要植物病毒和几种关键昆虫媒介（尤其是蚜虫）对升高的 CO2、温度和与降雨相关参数的影响方面。然而，为了应对（i）日益严重的病毒病流行和（ii）控制这些病毒病日益困难的局面，我们需要开展更多的研究，以减轻它们对未来全球粮食安全和植物生物多样性的不利影响。
