Kerr Kathleen F, Brown Marshall D, Zhu Kehao, Janes Holly
Kathleen F. Kerr and Kehao Zhu, University of Washington; and Marshall D. Brown and Holly Janes, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA
Kathleen F. Kerr and Kehao Zhu, University of Washington; and Marshall D. Brown and Holly Janes, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA.
J Clin Oncol. 2016 Jul 20;34(21):2534-40. doi: 10.1200/JCO.2015.65.5654. Epub 2016 May 31.
The decision curve is a graphical summary recently proposed for assessing the potential clinical impact of risk prediction biomarkers or risk models for recommending treatment or intervention. It was applied recently in an article in Journal of Clinical Oncology to measure the impact of using a genomic risk model for deciding on adjuvant radiation therapy for prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy. We illustrate the use of decision curves for evaluating clinical- and biomarker-based models for predicting a man's risk of prostate cancer, which could be used to guide the decision to biopsy. Decision curves are grounded in a decision-theoretical framework that accounts for both the benefits of intervention and the costs of intervention to a patient who cannot benefit. Decision curves are thus an improvement over purely mathematical measures of performance such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. However, there are challenges in using and interpreting decision curves appropriately. We caution that decision curves cannot be used to identify the optimal risk threshold for recommending intervention. We discuss the use of decision curves for miscalibrated risk models. Finally, we emphasize that a decision curve shows the performance of a risk model in a population in which every patient has the same expected benefit and cost of intervention. If every patient has a personal benefit and cost, then the curves are not useful. If subpopulations have different benefits and costs, subpopulation-specific decision curves should be used. As a companion to this article, we released an R software package called DecisionCurve for making decision curves and related graphics.
决策曲线是最近提出的一种图形化总结方法,用于评估风险预测生物标志物或风险模型对推荐治疗或干预措施的潜在临床影响。最近它被应用于《临床肿瘤学杂志》的一篇文章中,以衡量使用基因组风险模型来决定对接受根治性前列腺切除术的前列腺癌患者进行辅助放疗的影响。我们阐述了如何使用决策曲线来评估基于临床和生物标志物的模型,以预测男性患前列腺癌的风险,这可用于指导活检决策。决策曲线基于一个决策理论框架,该框架考虑了干预的益处以及对无法从干预中获益的患者的干预成本。因此,决策曲线是对诸如受试者操作特征曲线下面积等纯粹数学性能指标的改进。然而,正确使用和解释决策曲线存在挑战。我们提醒,决策曲线不能用于确定推荐干预措施的最佳风险阈值。我们讨论了决策曲线在风险模型校准不当情况下的使用。最后,我们强调决策曲线显示的是风险模型在一个所有患者具有相同预期干预益处和成本的人群中的性能。如果每个患者都有个人的益处和成本,那么这些曲线就没有用处。如果亚人群具有不同的益处和成本,则应使用特定亚人群的决策曲线。作为本文的补充,我们发布了一个名为DecisionCurve的R软件包,用于绘制决策曲线和相关图形。