Chaiton Michael, Diemert Lori, Cohen Joanna E, Bondy Susan J, Selby Peter, Philipneri Anne, Schwartz Robert
Ontario Tobacco Research Unit, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Ontario Tobacco Research Unit, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
BMJ Open. 2016 Jun 9;6(6):e011045. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011045.
The number of quit attempts it takes a smoker to quit successfully is a commonly reported figure among smoking cessation programmes, but previous estimates have been based on lifetime recall in cross-sectional samples of successful quitters only. The purpose of this study is to improve the estimate of number of quit attempts prior to quitting successfully.
We used data from 1277 participants who had made an attempt to quit smoking in the Ontario Tobacco Survey, a longitudinal survey of smokers followed every 6 months for up to 3 years beginning in 2005. We calculated the number of quit attempts prior to quitting successfully under four different sets of assumptions. Our expected best set of assumptions incorporated a life table approach accounting for the declining success rates for subsequent observed quit attempts in the cohort.
The estimated average number of quit attempts expected before quitting successfully ranged from 6.1 under the assumptions consistent with prior research, 19.6 using a constant rate approach, 29.6 using the method with the expected lowest bias, to 142 using an approach including previous recall history.
Previous estimates of number of quit attempts required to quit may be underestimating the average number of attempts as these estimates excluded smokers who have greater difficulty quitting and relied on lifetime recall of number of attempts. Understanding that for many smokers it may take 30 or more quit attempts before being successful may assist with clinical expectations.
吸烟者成功戒烟前所做的尝试次数是戒烟项目中经常报告的一个数据，但之前的估计仅基于成功戒烟者横断面样本中的终生回忆。本研究的目的是改进对成功戒烟前所做尝试次数的估计。
我们使用了安大略烟草调查中1277名尝试戒烟者的数据，该调查是一项对吸烟者的纵向调查，从2005年开始，每6个月进行一次，持续长达3年。我们在四组不同的假设下计算了成功戒烟前所做的尝试次数。我们预期的最佳假设集采用了生命表方法，考虑到队列中后续观察到的戒烟尝试成功率下降的情况。
成功戒烟前所预期的估计平均尝试次数在以下范围内：与先前研究一致的假设下为6.1次，采用恒定率方法为19.6次，采用偏差预期最低的方法为29.6次，采用包括先前回忆历史的方法为142次。
之前对戒烟所需尝试次数的估计可能低估了平均尝试次数，因为这些估计排除了戒烟难度较大的吸烟者，并依赖于对尝试次数的终生回忆。了解到许多吸烟者可能需要30次或更多次尝试才能成功戒烟，这可能有助于临床预期。
