Williams C R, Mincham G, Faddy H, Viennet E, Ritchie S A, Harley D
Centre for Population Health Research,University of South Australia,Adelaide,Australia.
Australian Red Cross Blood Service,Brisbane,Queensland,Australia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2016 Oct;144(14):3091-3100. doi: 10.1017/S095026881600162X. Epub 2016 Jul 26.
Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.
登革热是世界上最普遍的蚊媒疾病，每年有超过2亿人感染。我们使用了一个病毒传播机制模型来确定气候变暖是否会改变澳大利亚的登革热传播情况。利用两个气候模型以及两种碳排放情景，我们计算了2046年至2064年期间登革热未来的流行潜力。使用ECHAM5模型，在A2碳排放情景下预计登革热传播会减少，而在B1情景下可能会有所增加。由于蚊子繁殖地变干以及蚊子存活率下降，气候变暖可能会使登革热流行潜力降低。这些结果与大多数先前使用相关模型的研究结果相矛盾，那些研究表明气候变暖会增加登革热传播。登革热流行病学是由气候、人类宿主和病原体因素之间复杂的相互作用决定的。因此，假设气候与发病率之间存在简单关系是幼稚的，声称气候变暖会一致地增加登革热传播也是错误的，尽管总体而言气候变化对健康的影响将是负面的。
