School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020 Mar 2;14(3):e0008118. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008118. eCollection 2020 Mar.
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios.
Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue.
Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future.
Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.
登革热是一种由蚊子传播的病毒性疾病，其传播与气候密切相关。我们旨在回顾在气候变化情景下预测未来登革热的现有信息。
使用五个数据库（PubMed、ProQuest、ScienceDirect、Scopus 和 Web of Science），系统检索了从数据库创建到 2019 年 6 月 30 日期间所有预测气候变化情景下未来登革热的文章。在本综述中，“未来登革热”是指登革热的疾病负担、登革热病例的流行潜力、登革热病例的地理分布以及暴露于登革热气候适宜地区的人群。
有 16 项研究符合纳入标准，其中 5 项研究预测了全球登革热的未来。随着气候变化的进行，大多数研究报告称疾病负担增加、登革热病例的空间分布范围更广或更多人暴露于气候适宜的登革热地区。1961-1990 年和 2050 年分别是最常用的基线和预测期。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）引入的多个气候变化情景，包括 B1、A1B 和 A2 以及代表性浓度路径 2.6（RCP2.6）、RCP4.5、RCP6.0 和 RCP8.5，是最广泛采用的情景。越来越多的共识是使用“暴露于适合登革热的气候地区的人口”或“登革热病例的流行潜力”作为结果变量，而不是预测未来的登革热病例数。未来的研究探索决定登革热媒介存在/不存在的非气候驱动因素，并确定在这些气候适宜地区引发登革热传播的关键因素，将有助于更准确地预测未来的登革热。
预测登革热的未来需要系统地考虑假设和不确定性，这将有助于制定有针对性的气候变化适应战略来管理登革热。
