Shepperd James A, Pogge Gabrielle, Howell Jennifer L
University of Florida, USA.
University of Florida, USA.
Conscious Cogn. 2017 Apr;50:69-78. doi: 10.1016/j.concog.2016.07.004. Epub 2016 Jul 29.
Of the hundreds of studies published on unrealistic optimism (i.e., expecting a better personal future than is reasonably likely), most have focused on demonstrating the phenomenon, examining boundary conditions, or documenting causes. Few studies have examined the consequences of unrealistic optimism. In this article, we provide an overview of the measurement of unrealistic optimism, review possible consequences, and identify numerous challenges confronting investigators attempting to understand the consequences. Assessing the consequences of unrealistic optimism is tricky, and ultimately probably impossible when researchers assess unrealistic optimism at the group level (which reveals if a group of people is displaying unrealistic optimism on average) rather than the individual level (which reveals whether a specific individual displays unrealistic optimism). We offer recommendations to researchers who wish to examine the consequences of unrealistic optimism.
在发表的数百项关于不切实际的乐观主义（即期望个人未来比合理预期更好）的研究中，大多数都集中在证明这一现象、研究其边界条件或记录其成因上。很少有研究考察不切实际的乐观主义的后果。在本文中，我们概述了不切实际的乐观主义的测量方法，回顾了可能的后果，并指出试图理解这些后果的研究人员面临的诸多挑战。评估不切实际的乐观主义的后果很棘手，而且当研究人员在群体层面（揭示一群人平均是否表现出不切实际的乐观主义）而非个体层面（揭示特定个体是否表现出不切实际的乐观主义）评估不切实际的乐观主义时，最终可能是不可能的。我们为希望考察不切实际的乐观主义后果的研究人员提供建议。
