Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.
Nature. 2016 Aug 25;536(7617):411-8. doi: 10.1038/nature19082.
The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.
工业化时代的大陆和海洋变暖的演变提供了未来气候变化的背景，对于确定气候敏感性和控制区域变暖的过程非常重要。在这里，我们利用后公元 1500 年的古气候记录表明，热带海洋的持续工业化时代变暖始于 19 世纪中叶，与北半球大陆变暖几乎同时发生。古气候记录和模型模拟中持续显著变暖的早期发生表明，温室气体对工业化时代变暖的强迫早在 19 世纪中期就已经开始，并且包括增强的赤道海洋响应机制。在重建中，南半球变暖的发展被延迟，但这种明显的延迟在气候模拟中没有再现。我们的研究结果表明，仪器记录的时间太短，无法全面评估人为气候变化，而且在某些地区，即使考虑到自然变率，180 多年的工业化时代变暖已经导致地表温度超过工业化前的水平。
