Short Jack, Caulfield Brian
Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland.
Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland.
J Safety Res. 2016 Sep;58:1-14. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2016.05.002. Epub 2016 May 27.
The study of non-fatal road traffic injuries is growing in importance. Since there are rarely comprehensive injury datasets, it is necessary to combine different sources to obtain better estimates on the extent and nature of the problem. Record linkage is one such technique.
In this study, anonymized datasets from three separate sources of injury data in Ireland: hospitals, police, and injury claims are linked using probabilistic and deterministic linkage techniques. A method is proposed that creates a 'best' set of linked records for analysis, useful when clerical review of undecided cases is not feasible.
The linkage of police and hospital datasets shows results that are similar to those found in other countries, with significant police understatement especially of cyclist and motorcyclist injuries. The addition of the third dataset identifies a large number of additional injuries and demonstrates the error of using only the two main sources for injury data.
The study also underlines the risk in relying on the Lincoln-Petersen capture-recapture estimator to provide an estimate of the total population concerned.
The data show that road traffic injuries are significantly more numerous than either police or hospital sources indicate. It is also argued that no single measure can fully capture the range of impacts that a serious injury entails.
非致命道路交通伤害的研究正变得越来越重要。由于很少有全面的伤害数据集,有必要整合不同来源的数据,以便更好地估计该问题的范围和性质。记录链接就是这样一种技术。
在本研究中,来自爱尔兰三个独立伤害数据源(医院、警方和伤害索赔)的匿名数据集通过概率和确定性链接技术进行链接。提出了一种方法,该方法创建一组“最佳”链接记录用于分析,当对未决病例进行人工审核不可行时很有用。
警方和医院数据集的链接结果与其他国家的结果相似,警方数据存在显著低估,尤其是骑自行车者和骑摩托车者的伤害。加入第三个数据集后发现了大量额外的伤害,并证明了仅使用两个主要伤害数据源的错误。
该研究还强调了依赖林肯 - 彼得森捕获 - 再捕获估计器来估计相关总人口的风险。
数据表明,道路交通伤害的数量比警方或医院来源显示的要多得多。还认为没有单一措施能够完全涵盖重伤所带来的一系列影响。