World Health Organization, Lusaka, Zambia.
Zambia National Public Health Institute, Lusaka, Zambia.
Accid Anal Prev. 2023 Jun;186:107048. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2023.107048. Epub 2023 Mar 31.
Accurate and reliable data are essential for tracking progress and evaluating the effectiveness of road safety intervention measures. However, in many low- and medium-income countries, good quality data on road traffic crashes are often difficult to obtain. This situation has led to an underestimation of the severity of the problem and distortions in trends when the reporting changes over time. This study estimates the completeness of road traffic crash fatality data in Zambia.
Data from the police, hospitals, and the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) databases was collected for the period 1st January to 31st December 2020 and analyzed using a three-source capture-recapture technique.
A total of 666 unique records on mortalities as a result of road traffic crashes were collected from the three data sources during the period under review. The capture-recapture technique estimated the completeness of police, hospital, and CRVS databases to be 19%, 11% and 14% respectively. The combination of the three data sets was found to increase completeness to 37%. Based on this completion rate, we estimate that the actual number of people who died as a result of road traffic crashes in Lusaka Province in the year 2020 was approximately 1,786 (95% CI [1,448-2,274]). This corresponds to an estimated mortality rate of around 53 deaths per 100,000 population.
There is no single database contains complete data to provide a comprehensive picture of Lusaka province and by extension the country's road traffic injury burden. This study has shown how capture and recapture method can address this problem. It shows the need for the continuous review of the data collection processes and procedures in order to identify gaps and bottlenecks, improve efficiency, and increase the quality and completeness of road traffic data on injuries and fatalities. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that the city of Lusaka province and Zambia as a whole utilize more than one database for official reporting of road traffic fatalities to increase completeness.
准确可靠的数据对于跟踪进展和评估道路安全干预措施的有效性至关重要。然而，在许多低收入和中等收入国家，往往难以获得关于道路交通碰撞的高质量数据。这种情况导致对问题严重程度的低估，并导致随着时间的推移报告变化导致趋势扭曲。本研究旨在评估赞比亚道路交通碰撞死亡数据的完整性。
收集了警察、医院和民事登记和生命统计（CRVS）数据库中 2020 年 1 月 1 日至 12 月 31 日的数据，并使用三源捕获-再捕获技术进行分析。
在审查期间，从三个数据源共收集了 666 份关于道路交通碰撞造成死亡的独特记录。捕获-再捕获技术估计警察、医院和 CRVS 数据库的完整性分别为 19%、11%和 14%。三个数据集的组合被发现可将完整性提高到 37%。根据这一完成率，我们估计 2020 年卢萨卡省实际因道路交通碰撞死亡的人数约为 1,786 人（95%CI [1,448-2,274]）。这相当于每 100,000 人口约有 53 人死亡的估计死亡率。
没有一个数据库包含完整的数据，无法全面了解卢萨卡省乃至全国的道路交通伤害负担。本研究展示了捕获和再捕获方法如何解决这个问题。它表明需要不断审查数据收集过程和程序，以发现差距和瓶颈，提高效率，并提高伤害和死亡的道路交通数据的质量和完整性。基于本研究的结果，建议卢萨卡省和赞比亚整体利用多个数据库进行道路交通死亡的官方报告，以提高完整性。
